How Will iPhone 2.0 Change The Smartphone Market

AppleInsider is reporting today that a recent survey from investment bank RBC Capital Markets shows that over 50% of consumers looking to purchase a smartphone in the next 90 days are likely to purchase the new 3G iPhone which is scheduled for release on the 11th of July.

Symbian currently enjoys 65% of smartphone market share (53% Nokia), with Windows on 13% and RIM on 12%. With over 35M smartphones being sold each quarter, Apple could expect to ship over 15M iPhone 2.0 devices in the first quarter after release. To gain market share and accelerate past Windows and RIM, the iPhone would only need to sustain a 50% sale rate for two consecutive quarters. The iPhone market share for smartphone (or ‘converged’ devices) is currently at 7%, so the iPhone 2.0 could double, based on this survey, Apple market share relatively quickly.

Nokia shipped 60.5 Million smartphones in 2007, and it set to break the 100M device barrier for 2008. Apple have a very long way to go to surplant Nokia and Symbian, but the same survey reports that only 2% of respondants were considering purchasing a Nokia smartphone. Nokia is very strong internationally, but for the first time the new iPhone will see a very broad international launch on the 11th of July – launching in 21 markets including all of the big smartphone markets. The iPhone 2.0 will therefor not have the disadvantage its predecessor had – strong sales in the USA but a lag in releases to other international markets.

The smartphone market is going to be transformed throughout the next 12 months – not only because of the iPhone and Mac OS X but also because of the upcoming Andriod from Google, and Microsoft releasing frequent updates for Windows mobile. Defensive moves from Nokia via the open sourcing of Symbian and the ever-present RIM are always threatening to the new entrants and incumbants, although it seems that they are both losing market share to the iPhone, especially with the new enterprise features of the iPhone 2.0.

While currently Nokia leads RIM, Windows and then Apple and others – in a very short time we could see a huge shift in the smartphone platform market of the likes that were never imagined possible in the desktop PC market.

Statistics and numbers for this post were taken from Canalys Market Reports